Experts Believe Falling Gas Price Trend Has Likely Ended

Money in the chute of a gas representing high gas prices
Money in a gas tank symbolizing high gas prices. | image from twity1

Tom Ozimek of The Epoch Times reported that the trend of falling gasoline prices has likely reached its bottom, and drivers should be prepared to pay higher prices at the pump.

Ozimek cited several industry experts, with one projecting that gas prices will reach as high as $4 per gallon by spring.

Per a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), national average retail gasoline prices have been plummeting since reaching a peak at $3.505 for the week ending on November 8, 2021. The week ending December 27 witnessed the national average fall to $3.375 per gallon. The agency predicted in early December that prices would fall to $3.01 per gallon in January and average $2.88 per gallon in 2022.

However, Patrick De Haan, the head petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, believes the trend is going in the opposite direction.

“With oil back to $76/bbl, it’s becoming more clear that our month-long run with falling #gasprices is likely coming to an end,” De Haan declared in a tweet. “Expect a spike soon in the Great Lakes, which could push the national average up a few cents soon. West Coast could see some increases soon too.”

Additionally, De Haan told CNN that his model projects the national average gas price will likely rise to $3.41 per gallon for all of 2022. He believes it could reach a peak of as much as $4 per gallon in May before falling slightly.

“We could see a national average that flirts with, or in a worst-case scenario, potentially exceeds $4 a gallon,” De Haan told CNN.

“Expecting a hike soon in #gasprices in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and areas of Kentucky and Illinois as soon as tomorrow as retail gas prices are now at/below margin in many of these areas,” De Haan posted on Twitter.

He added that he expects gas prices to surge between $3.09 and $3.25 per gallon in Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio and reach higher levels in Illinois.

As of December 28, retail regular gasoline prices in those four states were: $3.001 in Ohio, $3.089 in Michigan, $3.041 in Indiana, and $3.371 in Illinois, as per AAA.

Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service at IHS Markit, recently posted on Twitter that he also believes the trend of decreasing gas prices has come to an end, at least for the moment. “Cash prices for gasoline up 4cts (East of Rockies) to as much as 16cts gal (PNW). Downtrend in retail pump prices probably over for now,” Kloza posted.

The Dallas Express reached out to Jason Isaac, the Director of Life:Powered, a project of the Texas Public Policy Foundation that seeks to keep Americans informed about energy.

“We’ve already seen firsthand the consequences of the Biden administration’s anti-energy policies,” Isaac observed. “The United States became the world’s energy-dominant nation in 2019, but all that progress has already been reversed as President Biden and his legion of bureaucrats continue their assault on the affordable, reliable energy Americans need to survive. Energy affects every sector of our economy, so it’s not just the energy industry that will suffer.”

“Unfortunately, we can expect more rising gas prices, higher taxes, and more inflation unless the Biden administration recognizes its errors and embraces the fuels that have powered our nation to prosperity,” he concluded.

The rate of gas price declines has slowed in line with decreased demand, AAA observed last week. It also added that a potential surge in crude prices would likely spur higher prices at the pump.

“Typically, falling demand and increased supply would support higher drops in pump prices, but fluctuations in the price of crude oil have helped to keep pump prices elevated. If crude prices continue to climb, pump prices will likely follow suit,” the agency asserted.

While gasoline prices have slightly fallen, they are still significantly higher than the national average of $2.251 per gallon in 2020.

Note: This article was updated on January 5 at 10:53 a.m. to include the comment from Jason Isaac.

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