Americans should brace for years of high beef prices as the U.S. cattle herd shrinks to its smallest size in 75 years, agricultural economists warn.
The massive decline stems from persistent drought, soaring costs, and an aging ranching workforce, leaving consumers facing grocery bills that climbed 20% last year alone.
“The biggest thing has been drought,” said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University, per Fox 4 KDFW.
Years of dry weather have devastated grasslands across the West and Plains, forcing ranchers to sell cattle early. Many producers have liquidated even breeding cows needed for future generations. This makes rebuilding America’s herds particularly challenging.
Kansas City Federal Reserve data show that each increase in drought severity triggers a cascade: a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size, and a 4% decline in farm income.
The recovery timeline offers little comfort to shoppers.
“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, per Fox 4. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”
Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, explained the biological constraints. Cattle need roughly two years to reach market weight, while rebuilding herds takes several more years.
Texas rancher Cole Bolton sees the crisis firsthand.
“I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage,” Bolton told Fox News Digital. “My message to consumers is simple: folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds.”
Will Harris, a fourth-generation cattleman in Georgia, agrees that the shortage hits consumers hardest.
“The American cattle herd is smaller than it has been since the 1950s, and that contraction has pushed beef prices to historic highs,” said Harris, owner of White Oak Pastures. “Demand is strong, but domestic supply simply isn’t meeting it, and that gap is being felt most by consumers.”
USDA data shows average beef prices jumped from $8.40 per pound in March to $10.10 by December 2025. Despite the surge, Americans haven’t reduced consumption.
Shoppers spent over $45 billion on beef in 2025, buying 6.2 billion pounds. Spending rose 12% while volume increased 4%, suggesting consumers accept higher prices rather than cut back.
President Donald Trump has temporarily expanded beef imports from Argentina to ease prices. However, ranchers and economists agree imports offer only short-term relief.
The fundamental challenge remains biological and environmental. Until drought conditions improve and ranchers can rebuild their herds, Americans will continue paying premium prices for their steaks and burgers.