The Hill has reported that a new poll says Harris will do great with black voters, but political commentator Ryan Girdusky says that is misleading and the poll portends disaster.

“Black voters, buoyed by Harris, more excited to vote in 2024 than in 2008: Poll,” a September 13 headline by The Hill reads. The poll in question is a recent survey conducted by the NAACP and several research partners. The story opens with celebratory quotes from NAACP leaders and various figures who seem to forecast Harris’ electoral success.

“This election season, we’ve witnessed a surge of enthusiasm among Black voters that we haven’t seen in some time. But we cannot be distracted — there are still voters to be reached,” said Derrick Johnson, president and CEO of the NAACP, according to the article. “Make no mistake, our lives depend on our votes.”

“Fifty-one percent of Black voters said they would cast their ballots for Harris if the election were held today. Only 27 percent said the same of former President Trump,” reads the story. Then the piece continues without noting the ominous other side of that figure, which implies only half of black voters would cast their ballots for Harris if the election were held today, a surprisingly small figure.

Girdusky saw the issues with the poll and called it out on X on September 15.

“So I read this poll and it’s actually a disaster for Kamala Harris. Obama won over 95% of the black vote. The NAACP has Kamala winning 63% of the black vote, including only 49% of black men under 50,” he tweeted.

An image attached to the post reads, “Most Black voters, 63%, plan to support Harris, compared with 13% for Trump, according to the new NAACP survey, which interviewed 1,000 registered Black voters across the U.S. from Aug. 6 to Aug. 12. But 26% of Black men under 50 years old said they supported Trump, versus 49% who backed Harris. For Black men above 50, 77% said they supported Harris. Sixty-seven percent of Black women said they supported Harris, while 8% said they supported Trump.”

Notably, the poll is a month old. It was conducted not long after Harris announced her bid for the Democratic nomination. During that period, she was likely enjoying a boost from selecting Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which occurred on August 6.

The vice president’s apparent gender gap between black men and women echoes other gender gaps in past elections. Since 2016, numerous polls have shown a gender gap between white college-educated suburban men and women when it comes to supporting former President Donald Trump.

The Harris campaign has taken great pains to court black voters. She has made many early campaign stops in places like Detroit and Atlanta and appeared with rap figures like Megan Thee Stallion.

Interestingly enough, some of the DNC’s most prominent black figures, like the Obamas, were far slower to endorse Harris than the Clinton faction of the Democratic Party after the vice president announced her candidacy.