A once-commanding lead for Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral prediction markets has narrowed significantly, as independents Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams inch upward with just over three months to go before Election Day.
On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, Mamdani’s odds of becoming mayor sit at 72% as of Tuesday morning — down from a high of 94.8% in April and 92% just over a month ago on June 18. Cuomo, the former governor of New York running as an independent, has climbed to 12%, while Adams, the incumbent mayor, rose one point overnight to 11%.
Though Mamdani remains the clear frontrunner, his slow erosion in support comes amid renewed scrutiny over his political record and policy positions.
Critics have zeroed in on Mamdani’s prior support for bail reform and “defund the police” efforts.
One Kalshi user wrote, “He has been an avid supporter of defund the police and bail reform … his progressive and almost unreasonable ideologies will put the people in more danger.”
Mamdani, a self-described Muslim socialist and state assemblyman from Queens, shocked political observers last month by defeating Cuomo in the Democratic primary, as previously reported on by The Dallas Express. Kalshi had projected Mamdani’s victory hours before polls closed, and the platform’s accuracy in that race — and last year’s presidential election — has attracted attention from investors and regulators alike.
The prediction market’s structure also reflects complexities in how bets are resolved. For example, the Eric Adams market will only resolve “Yes” if he wins as an independent — not as the nominee of a major party. Similarly, a “Yes” outcome in the Mamdani market is contingent on any Democratic Party nominee winning, meaning if Mamdani were to drop out and be replaced on the ballot, bets on him could still pay out.
Some users have voiced frustration with Kalshi’s complicated system. “If Mamdani drops out of race and Cuomo or Adams gets put on the Democrat ticket and win. My no bet on Mamdani is a loss??? How is that possible???” one commenter asked on Kalshi’s discussion board. “I’m betting that Mamdani will not win. Period! If he doesn’t win, my NO bet should win.”
On the political front, Adams has worked to reposition himself in recent weeks, particularly on immigration policy. Following a federal lawsuit challenging New York’s sanctuary city laws, Adams called for targeted reforms. “I think we need to tweak the current laws to allow us to coordinate with the federal government when it comes down to removing those dangerous people from our streets,” the mayor said in an interview with CBS New York.
The incumbent mayor was referencing a shooting allegedly involving undocumented immigrants and an off-duty CBP officer, previously reported by The Dallas Express.
Adams has found himself at odds with the City Council, which blocked a recent executive order allowing federal immigration agents to operate on Rikers Island. A Council spokesperson accused Adams of capitulating to “Trump’s political agenda,” while the mayor countered that his critics were “protecting individuals like the shooter,” adding, “That’s wrong.”
President Donald Trump weighed in on the broader sanctuary city debate. “We want to bring safety. We’ve got to get the criminals out and we’re doing it in record numbers,” he said, per CBS.
Cuomo, for his part, has struggled to generate enthusiasm. Once a dominant figure in state politics, his comeback bid has been hampered by past scandals, including sexual misconduct allegations and criticism over COVID-era nursing home deaths. His sluggish support on Kalshi suggests that voters are still not rallying around him en masse.
Republican Curtis Sliwa sat at 4% and Independent Jim Walden at 1% on the Kalshi market.
Still, Mamdani’s campaign has proven surprisingly resilient. Despite sharp attacks from across the political spectrum, the Kalshi market shows that the Democratic socialist is still the odds-on favorite to take the mayoralty this November.
The general election is scheduled for November 4.