Everyone is looking for a way to predict who will become the next president.
As the media tries to convince everyone that a woman who has never won a single vote in a Democratic presidential primary and who has been the least popular vice president in history is suddenly loved by everyone, polling guru Nate Silver says that FiveThirtyEight suspended its presidential forecasts in a bid to help Kamala Harris. The well-known ABC-owned website, which was started by Silver, has not published new polling data since Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee.
Silver said, “My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model, and they’re waiting until she’s doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that.”
While polls are often proven wrong, other indicators indicate who will likely be sitting in the Oval Office in January.
Business Insider reports on how the stock market can predict the winner of the presidential election. Here’s the start of the story:
The stock market can help predict who will win the Presidential election in November.
According to LPL chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist, since 1928, the S&P 500 has had an 83% accuracy rate in determining which political party will win the White House.
“While polls, betting odds, and forecasts can provide valuable insights into potential election outcomes, the data can be noisy. To avoid some of that noise and potential biases, keep an eye on how the market performs,” Turnquist said in a note on Thursday.
Specifically, he highlighted the stock market’s performance in the three-month window before election day as the ultimate predictor of who will win the presidency.
That key stretch officially began this week on Monday.
“Since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 was positive during the three months leading up to an election, the incumbent party remained in control of the White House 80% of the time,” Turnquist said.
For example, in the three months heading into the 2008 election, the S&P 500 dropped 24.8%. The Democrats ultimately won, with President Barack Obama ending Republican control of the White House after eight years.