With Election Day just a few days away, predictions for the 2024 presidential race are all over the map.
Polls show a neck-and-neck battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as both candidates are focused on swaying voters in key swing states before next Tuesday.
Experts remain divided on who will come out on top, with prominent forecasters offering conflicting takes.
Allan Lichtman, a historian from American University known for his accurate predictions, remains confident Harris will win. Relying on his “13 Keys to the White House” system, Lichtman said his forecast isn’t swayed by polls or popular opinion.
“I don’t change predictions mid-race,” he told FOX 5 DC, recalling that he stuck to his 2016 prediction of Trump’s victory, even when the polls pointed to Hillary Clinton.
Adding to the Harris camp’s optimism, Democratic strategist James Carville predicted in an op-ed for The New York Times that the Vice President will secure the win. “I’m all in,” he wrote, expressing certainty about her victory. Carville assured voters that, despite the chaotic campaign season, “America will be OK” with Harris as the next president.
However, not everyone agrees.
Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, favors a different outcome. In a New York Times op-ed, Silver revealed that his “gut” says Trump could win, though he cautions that the race is too close to call.
His forecast gives Trump a slight edge, winning 52 out of 100 simulated outcomes. Still, Silver warned that big surprises are possible, saying: “Don’t rule out a decisive win for either candidate.”
With both candidates crisscrossing the country in a last-minute push, the final stretch promises to be unpredictable. Harris and Trump are focusing heavily on battleground states like Arizona, where the fight for its 11 electoral votes is tight.
Both campaigns know that late shifts could tip the scales in such a close race.
Whether it’s Lichtman’s or Silver’s prediction that holds, the 2024 election will likely deliver surprises right up until the final votes are counted.
The article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence.