Scientists warn that Atlantic Ocean currents representing a significant part of Earth’s ecosystem are nearing a complete collapse.
In an article published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers predicted this event could occur as early as 2025.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a massive system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that includes the Gulf Stream. This system fulfills several global functions, such as the circulation of warm and cold water, managing a crucial part of the global climate, and transporting nutrients for life in the ocean, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
This system already flows slowly, and scientists note it is gradually moving slower. The NOAA reported that a cubic meter of water takes about 1,000 years to complete the circuit from the North Pole to the South Pole and back through the Atlantic Ocean.
Officials weren’t previously convinced that a total collapse was inevitable but did warn that such an event would yield global ramifications.
“For example, if the planet continues to warm, freshwater from melting ice at the poles would shift the rain belt in South Africa, causing droughts for millions of people,” NOAA said on its website. “It would also cause sea level rise across the U.S. East Coast.”
These consequences could present themselves sooner than expected.
Scientists in this latest study used sea surface temperature data from 1870 as a starting point to measure alterations in the Gulf Streams over the years. They then used the data to predict when a collapse could occur.
“We have reduced the analysis to have as few and sound assumptions as possible, and given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse,” said researchers in the study.
Still, they said that a breakdown of the AMOC might only be partial. And scientists from the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change told NBC 5 DFW that while they predict the Gulf Stream will weaken, they don’t anticipate a collapse this century.
But Jonathan Bamber, director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre at the University of Bristol, told NBC 5 that the worldwide implications of such a failure would be “disastrous.”
“This study highlights how important it is to continue to monitor AMOC variability and to improve our understanding of its stability under present-day and future climate conditions,” Bamber added.
The AMOC is not the only of its kind under threat of failure. Scientists from the University of New South Wales released a study in March that suggested that the ocean currents near the Antarctic are also on the verge of failure, as previously reported by The Dallas Express.
