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Texas not among states whose tax funds have rebounded from COVID-19 downturn

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Monthly tax receipts collected in Texas from March 2020 to February 2021 were below the total tax revenues collected in the previous year, according to a new analysis by Pew Charitable Trusts and the Urban Institute.

The analysis showed that for the first time, tax revenue collected by the majority of the 50 states exceeded that of the prior 12 months, showing that revenue growth in most states has erased the losses that occurred during the pandemic. In the case of Texas, tax revenues decreased 10.3 percent over that time period.

The cumulative pandemic tax revenues as of June 2020 in Texas were down 26.1 percent compared to revenues a year earlier, the researchers found.

Nationwide, total state tax receipts were up 0.01 percent in the March 2020-to-February 2021 period, compared to the previous year, the study found. The conclusion is based on preliminary data from 49 states, since no data was available for Wyoming.

In 29 states, revenues had increased quickly enough to offset the pandemic losses, the study found. Idaho posted the highest tax revenue gains, at 11 percent, according to Pew Charitable Trusts.

The revenue recovery occurred much more quickly than in previous recessions, the researchers reported. The pandemic’s effect on tax revenues was less than projected initially, the study said.

Pandemic Tax Revenue Recovery

State Cumulative Changes in Monthly Receipts, March 2020-February 2021 vs. Previous Year
Alaska -49.2%
Hawaii -17.4%
North Dakota -10.9%
Nevada -10.8%
Texas -10.3%
Oregon -9.1%
Florida -8.4%
Oklahoma -3.6%
Louisiana -2.5%
New Mexico -2.5%
Pennsylvania -2.4%
West Virginia -2.0%
Missouri -1.9%
Montana -1.6%
Kansas -1.1%
New Jersey -1.1%
Arkansas -0.8%
Minnesota -0.5%
Indiana -0.3%
Connecticut -0.1%
Ohio 0.1%
Maryland 0.1%
Illinois 0.1%
Massachusetts 0.2%
Iowa 0.2%
Delaware 0.4%
New York 0.5%
Tennessee 0.9%
New Hampshire 1.6%
Wisconsin 2.0%
Kentucky 2.4%
California 2.8%
Virginia 2.8%
Mississippi 2.9%
Nebraska 3.5%
Rhode Island 3.6%
Washington 3.6%
North Carolina 3.8%
Vermont 4.0%
Michigan 4.4%
Alabama 4.9%
Maine 5.4%
Georgia 5.5%
Arizona 6.1%
South Dakota 7.2%
South Carolina 7.7%
Colorado 8.0%
Utah 8.7%
Idaho 11.0%
Wyoming N/A

Source: Pew Charitable Trusts, Urban Institute

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