Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off against Land Commissioner George P. Bush in a Republican primary runoff election.
Early voting for Texas’ primary runoff begins May 16, and election day is set for May 24.
Under state law, a candidate needs 50% of the vote plus one to win an election. Paxton had 42.7% of the vote, with more than 95% of votes tabulated. Bush finished in second place out of four candidates with nearly 23% of the vote.
Bush is the nephew of the 43rd president, George W. Bush, and grandson of the 41st president, George H. W. Bush. He is the only member of the Bush family that still holds public office.
Bush was running nearly equal with former State Supreme Court justice Eva Guzman early Tuesday evening, but he pulled ahead later that night. Guzman had 17.5% of the vote, while U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert was just behind with 17% of the vote share.
Paxton is a two-term incumbent with the most political funds out of all the candidates. The attorney general finished the month of January with $7.5 million on hand, while Bush had $2.6 million.
Gohmert had less than $1 million on hand during the same period, while Guzman had raised over $1 million in the first ten days of her campaign. Guzman also received the rare endorsement of the political group Texans for Lawsuit Reform, which typically only endorses incumbents.
Paxton was also the only incumbent for a statewide office that received a Trump endorsement but failed to win their primary outright. Governor Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller all received an endorsement from Trump. They each won their primary races in commanding fashion.
It is possible that Paxton’s legal troubles bogged down his support. Paxton has been under indictment since 2015 for felony securities fraud that allegedly took place before he assumed the AG position.
In 2020, eight of Paxton’s staffers sent a letter to federal law enforcement accusing him of abusing his office to benefit Austin real estate developer Nate Paul.
All eight of the staffers subsequently resigned or were fired. Four of them sued Paxton under the Texas Whistleblower Act, which protects public officials who report law violations. The event triggered an FBI investigation into Paxton, which is still ongoing.
Paxton has denied any wrongdoing in both of the legal scandals.
The legal clouds hanging over Paxton were a prime target for attacks from his Republican primary challengers.
His opponents in the primary all stated their belief that if Paxton wins the Republican nomination, Democrats will take the seat in November. Bush and Gohmert also pointed out the possibility that the FBI investigation could lead to Paxton being indicted after winning the nomination, forcing him to take his attention off of the campaign and giving ammunition to the Democratic opponent in a general election.
In a speech at his election watch party in Austin, Bush emphasized that point once it became apparent he would be Paxton’s runoff opponent.
“That’s what’s at stake in this race,” he said. “That’s what this campaign is about. It’s not about one individual. It’s about preserving conservative values in our state.”
Paxton was in McKinney to watch the election night results and conceded that he would be facing a runoff in a speech. He stated he was the candidate who was against the “establishment.”
“May 24 is not that far away. Tomorrow we start 0-0,” Paxton told the crowd. “If you want to keep winning for Texas, if you want to be part of saving Texas and saving this country, we’re going to have to fight the fight for the next two and a half months, get our vote back out, unite the conservatives.”
Bush faces an uphill battle to unite conservatives against the Trump-endorsed Paxton. He and Guzman unleashed fierce attacks on each other just as much as they did against Paxton. According to University of Texas-San Antonio political scientist Jon Taylor, Bush may have taken too much damage from Guzman to receive the support of her voters.
“You had these two candidates, who I think recognized it was going to be between them for second place, getting into essentially a scorched earth campaign against each other,” he told Houston Public Media.
Taylor also said that supporters of fourth-place finisher Louie Gohmert would be more likely to vote for Paxton than Bush. Gohmert attempted to brand himself as a candidate further to the right of Paxton. In contrast, Bush and Guzman are more moderate.
Still, Bush is confident he can pull off the win over Paxton. In his election night speech, he claimed that only 1 in 3 Republican primary voters knew of Paxton’s legal troubles. Bush said he would make sure that voters were educated about those issues for the runoff and challenged Paxton to a debate.
“He is going to divert attention away from his legal problems and personal challenges,” Bush said. “I’m going to be the most effective to secure the border, back law enforcement, and take on issues that we’ve been talking about on this campaign. So he can talk all he wants, but we’re going to have three months to have this debate if he dares leave his basement.”
A runoff will also decide the Democratic primary winner for AG.
Rochelle Garza, a former ACLU lawyer from Brownsville, was the top vote-getter and will advance to the runoff. Her opponent in the runoff is still undecided. Joe Jaworski, an attorney and former mayor of Galveston, and Lee Merritt, a civil rights lawyer, are in a battle for second place that is still too close to call.