A recent poll conducted by the University of Texas/Texas Tribune points to Republicans dominating the 2022 midterms in the Lone Star State.
This poll contradicts prevailing narratives about Democrats turning the state purple.
The UT/Texas Tribune poll revealed that Republican incumbents are firmly in control of their districts, while Democratic challengers are having issues gaining traction among voters.
Democrats have had a 27-year drought as far as winning statewide elections is concerned.
In 2018, Democrats had a surprisingly strong performance when they ran former Congressman Robert “Beto” O’Rourke against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Cruz escaped with a narrow 2.6 percentage point victory.
In 2020, former President Donald Trump won Texas by 5.6 percentage points, while Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) won his reelection bid by 10.0 percentage points. Similarly, Republicans maintained firm control of the state legislature after the last ballots were cast in the 2020 elections.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott still has a 79% approval rating among Texas Republicans in the state.
Abbott has two prominent primary challengers in former Texas State Senator Don Huffines and former Texas Republican Party Chairman Allen West.
Nevertheless, both of Abbott’s Republican primary challengers will have a tall task in front of them as they attempt to unseat the incumbent governor.
Abbott has raised $55 million in his reelection campaign by the middle of 2021 and maintains strong support among his voter base.
Eric Mack of Newsmax outlined Abbott’s polling when juxtaposed to his Republican competitors:
- Abbott 56%
- Former Texas GOP Chairman Allen West 13%
- Former Texas state Sen. Don Huffines 7%
Although he’s been rumored to run for governor in 2022, O’Rourke has not made any official indications that he plans to run for statewide office again.
There has been a strong assumption on demographic experts that Texas could soon be in play thanks to the state’s changing electorate.
However, results from Zapata County, an area Republicans won for the first time in a century, showed the GOP’s potential for making inroads with Hispanics, especially those of Tejano background.
Historically speaking, the party that holds the White House experiences congressional losses and often does not make many, if any, gains in state-level races.
All told, Texas Republicans are primed for a solid showing in the 2022 elections if historical trends stay intact in the 2022 election cycle.