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Happy New Year | Predictions for 2023

City

Cityscape of Dallas (Texas, USA) with fireworks | Image by Marti Bug Catcher, Shutterstock

The Dallas Express is starting a New Year’s tradition.

Our reporters and editors interviewed some of the city’s business, political, and thought leaders and asked what they expect in the new year.

We also went to local shopping centers and coffee shops to listen to some people’s thoughts on 2023.

Here are some of their ideas … from the executive suite to the street.

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Andrew Espinoza, Dallas’ Chief Building Official and Development Services Director: “I’m very excited for 2023. The department has continued to work diligently to make incremental improvements throughout the year and is proud to be ending 2022 better than how we started. Our primary focus next year is to cultivate a stronger relationship with the people of Dallas and to continue reducing (permit) wait times. We want to change the perception the community has about Development Services. That starts with changing the culture, and that responsibility ultimately falls on me.”

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Gus Kepler, Founder and CEO of Black Box Stocks: “The stock market has been tough to trade this year and is not going to get better in the near term. I predict the stock market has around six more months to come down and consolidate before things pick back up. Because of this shift, our company is fine-tuning its strategy, building new tools, and diversifying its services to provide more assistance for our day traders, long-term holders, and everything in between. Many people don’t realize how much the fall in cryptocurrencies has affected stocks. When people’s crypto holdings got wiped out, many investors likely sold off a portion of their stock holdings to mitigate some of the losses. The stock market has always been cyclical, so it needs to bottom out first.”

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Chris McSwain, Director of Community Engagement for North Texas Giving Day, Communities Foundation of Texas “North Texas Giving Day is the largest one-day giving event in the country. This year we had 94,000 givers and raised $62 million. We have been doing this for 14 years, and we have raised $500 million to support and keep programs and services that are critical to the members of our communities. From food security to organizations that focus on health conditions and organizations that touch the arts, there is a cause that reflects what anyone might care about. We are thrilled to see how North Texas came to help nonprofits still reeling from 2020. It’s an incredible day that we host every September. I think it will continue to be one of the unifying events to help people in our region to find out what they are passionate about and allow them to act on that passion.”

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Stephen Patterson, Director of Investor Success at Key City Capital: “Just like 2022, 2023 is going to be a challenging year. I see interest rates increasing throughout the first two quarters and ultimately settling around 5.1% to 5.5% before rolling back from there. January’s Q4 earnings will be important to look at when gauging the early outlook for 2023. I’m interested to see how holiday sales did, given that many companies are in the red all year and rely on strong holiday sales before moving into the black. Inflation will continue going down due to higher interest rates, though the high borrowing costs will likely lead to more layoffs. There are two conflicting issues in 2023 -– the Fed stepping on the brakes and the government stepping on the gas.”

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Cliff Freeman, Associate Broker of The Cliff Freeman Group at eXp Realty: Dallas is well-insulated compared to the rest of the country. DFW has been blessed with a robust economy in the last five years. People keep moving here, and that supports price levels.  I don’t think we will be impacted like San Francisco, L.A., or New York, where people are moving out, and they’re moving here. Compared to the rest of the country, we are going to be in good shape.  I think house prices are going to stay flat. In 2023, The National Association of Realtors predicts a net price gain of 0.3%. The federal reserve rate hikes have effectively doubled the cost of ownership throughout a 30-year loan. The amount of realtors is also hitting an inflection point and is starting to go down. There is going to be a thinning of the herd among agents. Many new agents will be looking for new work because the change in the market has made it more challenging. You have to be an excellent agent to make a living now. Many agents that got in when it was easy are finding out they didn’t have the right skill set for the current market.”

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Dr. Tim Westley, 150 F.I.R.S.T Black Men of Texas president: “We’re going to continue to see minority voters shift. In the 2022 midterms nationally, Republicans did 10% better with Hispanic voters, 17% better with Asian voters, and 4% better with Black voters. In the coming year, Democrats will push back to turn the trends around and likely will be successful. Republicans will respond, but I am guessing it will be done in a lackluster way. Republicans need to shore up confidence in voting in major urban areas such as Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin.”

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Tori Mannes, CEO of ChildCareGroup: “Trying to rebound from COVID has been a challenge for the early childcare profession. Early childhood educators are the workforce behind the workforce, and we have to be there so others can go to work. Statistically, there’s a vast body of information on how hard staffing is in childcare and education settings. As we tried to return to normalcy, we thought we would have an issue getting back to full enrollment. In actuality, childcare is impacted by a tight labor market and an overall rise in wages. People are making more money, and employers are offering more money, so there are a lot of places childcare workers can go to make more money. The pandemic has made people rethink what they want for the childcare setting. We are trying to find a way to fund childcare, so it is affordable. Right now, we have the challenge of childcare programs that want to raise their wages to be attractive enough to get the right talent in the door. There is only so much money for subsidies to go around.  

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State Rep. Carl Sherman, D-DeSoto: “I hope Uvalde is top of mind in 2023. Our children deserve better. Our schools have become a war zone. We have a $50 billion surplus in Texas, including the Rainy Day fund. In 2023, we should put some of it toward eliminating school violence. Uvalde should be a clarion call for all of us.”

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Chad Cohen, Dallas Young Republicans Chairman: “Republicans were disappointed in 2022 races in Dallas County. It is a blue county. As such, the Democrats own all of the issues. There are no excuses on critical issues, such as crime and education. Nationally, the economy, inflation, and illegal immigrant will be the top issues. So many people are coming across the border, affecting schools and hospitals in Dallas adversely.”

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Mark Melton, Dallas attorney: “The eviction crisis is going to increase because of inflation and the average tenant’s inability to pay.  Then there will be landlords who raise the rent after a lease expires. That will force out people who have been paying on time and just can’t afford to pay more. The bad thing is … the people who will be forced to move do not have the money to move. They cannot pay for moving, including deposits and the first month’s rent. It’s easy to say, ‘Let them go somewhere else.’ But that is not the answer. We need a working class in Dallas. The economy works when all segments of the population are served, especially regarding housing stock.”

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Ed Curtis, CEO of YTexas:2021 was a record year for corporate relocations in Texas. In 2022, 27 companies moved into the state. Of those, 17 companies relocated their headquarters to Dallas.  We’re seeing that when a company relocates, it takes them a couple of years to get settled to get people moving here, then the vendor and supply chain companies follow. The wave we saw in 2021 and 2022 with corporate relocations will continue in 2023, and the supply chain will follow that in the next couple of years. Even if we have a slowdown, it favors us because Texas is a less expensive place to live, and we have too many headquarters and too many things going on. We were recently named a top 100 city in the world. If we see a slowdown, it will attract more companies to the area.”

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Pastor Keyon Singleton, Dallas youth pastor and businessman: “In 2022, I had to learn about negotiating, problem-solving, and receiving wisdom, but I also accomplished a lot of my goals. Next year won’t be easier because I want to continue to expand my work and God’s work across the state of Texas.”

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Frankiesha Watkins, owner of BPolished Beauty Supply in Addison: “It’s sometimes a struggle to have access to quality products we need in store, but we are blessed to be one of the smaller stores that made it (in 2022).” For me, 2023 will be an easier year since I’ve cut back on locations. Economically, I think we’re falling into a recession, or are in one, so financially next year may be a little challenging.”

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James Bennett, The Dallas Express Managing Editor: “2023 will see the continued decline of traditional media. Readers have lost trust during the last decade. Sadly, we’re starting to see news deserts expanding in some parts of the country, where the powerful are no longer held accountable by media watchdogs for rampant crime, low-performing schools, and social problems such as homelessness. I see more nonprofit media companies forming, filling the thirst for solutions-oriented, fact-based news.”

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Managing Editor James Bennett and reporters Brett Hershman, Kaylin McGlothen, and Andrew Terrell contributed to this report.

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