One of America’s leading economic researchers explained the future of DFW’s “sprawl” to EarthX2025 attendees.
EarthX2025 Congress of Conferences is held at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas from April 21 to 25, 2025.
“Earthx2025 will be a 5-day, comprehensive environmental conference that features in-depth conversations with important business, political, and environmental leaders; presents bold solutions for the future of the planet; and creates an abundance of networking opportunities designed to build new coalitions and partnerships,” the EarthX website says.
J.H. Cullum Clark, the director of the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative and an adjunct professor of Economics at SMU, spoke at the environmental conference on “Greening Super Sprawl: How North Texas Can Remain Successful – and Sustainable – in the 21st Century” on April 21.
Clark argued “sprawl” doesn’t need to be an “ugly word.”
Dallas and Fort Worth have sprawled so much that in some ways they have merged, a notion reflected in the common shorthand “DFW.” The metroplex has continued to grow and is currently creeping toward Cleburne in the South and McKinney in the North.
Clark said DFW’s growth is projected to continue in the foreseeable future and will be influenced by “demand, density and demographics.”
On the demand point, Clark saw demand for sprawling housing arrangements increasing as more people and businesses relocated to DFW.
Density was a more complicated topic. Clark pointed to previous research from the Marron Institute’s Director of Urban Expansion, Shlomo Angel, that indicated cities become less dense as they grow. He summarized this phenomenon by saying that in the last 100 years, people have chosen to live in bigger housing units with fewer people in each unit as the nation has grown wealthier.
Clark believes that this would necessitate more sprawl in DFW’s future because more people want more space. The researcher indicated that DFW is uniquely positioned to accommodate this growth because it has few aquatic constraints, such as an ocean barrier or a lack of water to hydrate a growing population.
He explained that the terrestrial barriers are minimal, pointing out that Dallas has more raw land than any other big city and Fort Worth has continued annexations to the west. He felt this gave both cities more room to grow.
Clark recognized that the demographic question is currently in flux. He said both national and state population growth projections assume declining native birth rates and sustained levels of increased immigration. However, he notes that President Donald Trump’s policies could change this trend, and it remains unclear what might happen.
Nevertheless, he concludes, “outward expansion is inevitable.”
Looking at other options, he said sprawl is “better than most of the alternatives.” He commended Houston for relaxing lot size restrictions so that a greater variety of housing units could be built. He also liked that mixed-use, walkable suburbs are popping up on the prairie around DFW.
However, not everyone agreed with Clark.
After his speech, Clark sat on a panel with Susan Alvarez, director of Environment and Development for the North Central Texas Council of Governments. Alvarez showed figures that indicated North Texas’s population could increase by 43-45% in the coming decades and that there would be a “118% increase in congestion—time spent in cars.”
The director raised further practical challenges to the notion that DFW could continue to grow. She felt DFW’s infrastructure was insufficient to supply water to the projected population and could not handle both sewage processing and trash storage.
Clark countered that congestion and housing price increases will retard some of the population growth Alvarez cited and would thus limit some of the concerns raised by her powerpoints.