Ground beef prices have surged for Americans despite declines in other grocery staples.
Ground beef averaged $6.70 a pound in March, up nearly 16% from a year earlier, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Beef steaks reached $12.73 per pound that month, also up 16% year-over-year.
In 2021, ground beef sold for as little as $3.96 a pound. A decade earlier, it averaged $3.75.
Relief appears unlikely for beef consumers anytime soon.
“There is nothing to suggest any relief from high beef prices,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, CBS News reported.
Beef prices could climb further this summer. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts increases exceeding 10% in 2026, possibly reaching 18%.
“I would expect beef prices to remain high for the remainder of this year and potentially into next year as well,” said David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, according to CBS News.
Higher beef costs coincide with the impact of the conflict in Iran on gas and heating oil prices. The Consumer Price Index showed March inflation at 3.3% from a year prior, up almost a full point from February.
Middle East tensions may raise food prices through higher diesel costs for transportation. The effect on perishables like beef would lag but could emerge soon, Ortega said.
“Higher diesel prices are going to affect costs all along the agri-food supply chain, from my running a combine, to transporting the grain that livestock producers need, to then transporting the actual processed beef products to the store,” Ortega added.
U.S. food prices overall rose nearly 20% from January 2022 through March 2026, per the CBS News Price Tracker.
Droughts, not conflict-related inflation, primarily drive beef prices. U.S. cattle herds dropped below 28 million beef cows in January, down 1% from 2025 and at the lowest since the 1960s, Agriculture Department data show. Droughts cut pastureland, raising feed expenses and prompting herd reductions.
A 2022 drought struck the western U.S., a beef hub. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that year spiked feed costs.
“It became costly to hold on to livestock. So [ranchers] sold a lot of those animals,” Ortega explained, noting that cattle’s long gestation limits quick herd growth.
Higher prices have barely slowed demand. NielsenIQ data showed beef unit sales down 4% year-over-year through late March, while dollar sales rose 8% at grocery stores, dollar stores, and other retailers.
“Demand for beef has not diminished,” Andrew Coppin, CEO of Ranchbot, a Fort Worth, Texas-based company that sells water-monitoring technology to ranchers, recently told CBS News. “It’s actually taken more wallet off pork and chicken, so it’s been faring better even in a moderate inflation environment,” he added.
Cattle herds may recover. USDA figures indicate fewer slaughters and more female beef cows retained, signaling breeding efforts.
“High prices are what signal producers to rebuild the herd and expand supply,” Ortega told CBS News. “Because of these high prices, we may start to see additional supply in future months and years that will then sort of help moderate these high prices.”