Despite desperate attempts by the mainstream media to convince everyone that the economy is looking up, data keeps coming in that says otherwise.
The latest? A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with preliminary revisions to jobs data is expected to show a huge drop in numbers. Goldman Sachs estimates that 600,000 to 1 million fewer jobs were created between April 2023 and March 2024.
According to the New York Post, if the revision exceeds 501,000 fewer jobs, it would be the largest revision in 15 years.
“A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April,” Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said last week, according to the New York Post. This would make “risks to the full employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate more salient amid widespread softening in other labor market data.”
The leader of the free world may be angrily insisting that his economic policies are working, but that doesn’t mean they are.
Business Insider reports on how the latest job data might shake things up on Wall Street and elsewhere. Here’s the start of the story:
An under-the-radar job market update will be released on Wednesday, and it could shake up the Federal Reserve and stocks this week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release estimates for its 2024 Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Establishment Data on Wednesday morning. The report will cover non-farm payroll data from April 2023 through March 2024.
The report is expected to come with a large downward revision to jobs growth over the 12-month period, according to an estimate from Goldman Sachs.
Goldman economist Ronnie Walker said the report could deliver a downward revision to labor growth by as much as one million jobs.
“Based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) — the key source data for the annual benchmark revision — a large downward revision seems likely; we estimate on the order of 600k-1mn (or a 50-85k downward revision to monthly payroll growth over April 2023-March 2024),” Walker said in a note last week.
Such a large figure would represent the largest downward revision to nonfarm payrolls since 2010, he added.