Last season’s matchup between Oklahoma and Baylor featured two ranked teams fighting for a spot in the Big 12 title game. This year, each team is unranked and seeking their sixth win to earn bowl eligibility on Saturday in Norman.
Both teams enter Saturday’s matchups on two-game winning streaks, but Baylor has more on the line. The Bears have already lost two games in conference play, but it has yet to face TCU, Kansas State, or Texas, all teams ahead of it in the conference standings.
If it wins out, Baylor (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) could be competing for the Big 12 championship for the second year in a row. Under first-year head coach Brent Venables, the Sooners had one of the worst starts to conference play in the program’s recent history.
Oklahoma (5-3, 2-3) started conference play 0-3 but has since rebounded in a big way with consecutive wins over Kansas and Iowa State.
Baylor has consecutive wins over Kansas and a 45-17 rout of Texas Tech on Saturday in Lubbock. The Bears held a 24-3 lead early in the third and scored 21 unanswered to close the game after the Red Raiders cut the lead to seven.
The road win against Texas Tech was Baylor’s first win in Lubbock since 1990. They will look to end another streak against the Sooners, as they are 1-14 all-time in Norman.
The Bears’ lone win in Norman came in 2014. Oklahoma has dominated the all-time series with Baylor, 28-4, but the Bears won last year in Waco, 27-14, snapping a seven-game losing streak to the Sooners.
Either team earning a third straight win would boost the team’s morale. Baylor will look to lean on its run game.
The Bears are 4-0 when they rush for over 230 yards and 1-3 when running for under 170. Freshman Richard Reese has been leading the Baylor ground attack, ranking second in the nation in rushing yards (791) and rushing touchdowns (12) among all NCAA freshmen.
Reese had 148 yards and three touchdowns in the win at Texas Tech.
By way of the efficient running attack, the Bears’ offense is great at controlling the clock, leading the conference in time of possession. In their last two games, Baylor registered a TOP of 40:10 against Kansas and 40:17 at Texas Tech.
How the Sooners’ defense does against the Bear’s ground game may be the deciding factor. Oklahoma allowed over 275 rushing yards in each of its three conference losses to Kansas State, TCU, and Texas.
When it has to pass, Baylor’s Sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen has been great at spreading the ball. Shapen has thrown for 1,819 yards and 13 TDs in his first full season as the starter.
Fellow sophomore and wide receiver Monaray Baldwin has been Shapen’s top target, averaging 20 yards per catch.
Conversely, while Baylor thrives on controlling the ball for most of the game, the Sooners boast a quick strike offense, ranking 122nd out of 131 FBS teams this season in average TOP (26:41). They have won the TOP battle just once in their eight games (30:19-29:41 vs. Kansas).
The Sooners have scored 79 points over their two-game winning streak with junior quarterback Dillon Gabriel back after the team only scored 14 in the six quarters he was out with an injury against TCU and Texas.
Gabriel ranks fifth nationally this season in touchdown/interception ratio. He has thrown for 14 touchdowns and has just one interception.
The Sooners also average 217.5 yards on the ground – the third-best in the conference. Senior running back Eric Gray leads the Oklahoma ground attack with 796 rushing yards with six touchdowns, an average of 99.5 yards per game.
Gray will be challenged against a Baylor defense that is great against the run, allowing just 113 rushing yards per game.
The game will kick off at 2 p.m. CT and be live-streamed on ESPN+.