Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has a comfortable lead over his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke just days before early voting begins in Texas, according to a poll released Friday by the University of Texas Politics Project.
Abbott holds an 11-point advantage, 54% to 43%, among “likely voters” over O’Rourke in the poll, as he appears poised to win his third term as Texas governor.
The 11-point advantage is one of the widest Abbott has registered with likely voters in polls.
Abbott had a 5-point advantage in the last UT poll, released around early September, though that was among “registered” rather than “likely” voters.
Jim Henson, director of the UT Politics Project, said the results “underline the contrast between the last midterm in 2018 and 2022.”
“O’Rourke’s assets as a candidate were amplified by a national dynamic in 2018 that boosted Democrats,” Henson said, referring to O’Rourke’s narrow loss against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. “But the results in this poll illustrate how he’s facing a very different national environment in 2022 that’s hurting rather than helping his efforts to close the baseline Republican advantages in statewide elections.”
Democratic President Joe Biden remains highly unpopular in Texas, with 52% of registered voters disapproving of his job performance and only 39% approving.
Another critical reason for Abbott’s strong advantage appears to be linked to the issues that are most important to voters, according to Henson.
“While more than half of Republican voters say immigration and border security is the most important issue area informing their vote, Democratic voters’ attention is divided among a list of several issues, topped by abortion,” he said.
Immigration and border security, one of the central focuses of Abbott’s campaign, was cited as the top issue facing Texas by 32% of overall respondents. The state’s economy was second with 14%, followed by abortion with 13%, while no other issue garnered double digits.
Likely voters indicated they trust Abbott more than O’Rourke to do a better job on the border and the economy by double-digit margins. While the candidates are equally split on abortion, with 44% saying they trust Abbott more on the abortion issue and 44% saying the same for O’Rourke.
While 6 out of ten Republican respondents were united in selecting immigration-related issues as their most important issue, Democrats are divided on their top issues.
Just over one-fourth of Democrats cited abortion as their most important issue, while gun violence was second at 16%, followed by the environment and climate change with 13% each and health care with 10%.
Abbott is ahead by double digits among men but only 2 points among women.
More notably, the poll shows likely Hispanic voters are evenly divided between the two gubernatorial candidates at 48% each.
Only 7% of respondents said they were somewhat or very likely to switch their vote.
Not only does Abbott appear to be in good shape just over two weeks before the November 8 election, but the poll also shows all other statewide Republican candidates with double-digit leads.
Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democrat Rochelle Garza by 14 points. Previous polls suggested Paxton was in for a tight race.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads his Democratic opponent, Mike Collier, by 15 percentage points. Comptroller Glenn Hegar is ahead of his Democratic challenger, Janet Dudding, by 12 points.
Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller has a 12-point lead over Democrat Susan Hays, while Republican Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Jay Kleberg by 11 in the race for land commissioner.
The poll surveyed 1,200 self-declared registered voters using the internet from October 7-17 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%.
Early voting for the November 8 election begins on Monday. To check your registration and find your polling place, visit VoteTexas.gov.
