With November approaching, the competition for several Texas congressional seats is intensifying, and campaign finance reports provide an early glimpse of who has the resources to compete effectively.
Republicans are focusing on a few key districts ranging from the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs to the South Texas border. Meanwhile, Democrats are striving to defend their incumbents who are facing both legal and financial challenges. Both parties are paying close attention to trends among Hispanic voters. Republicans are presenting a group of Hispanic candidates in several competitive districts, while Democrats have seen their previous advantage among this demographic erode in recent election cycles.
South Texas Incumbents Under Pressure
Two Democratic incumbents in majority-Hispanic South Texas districts are drawing attention from Republicans heading into the fall. In Texas’ 28th Congressional District, Rep. Henry Cuellar – who has represented the Laredo-area seat since 2005 – faces a challenge from Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat who switched parties.
Tijerina outraised Cuellar in Q1 of 2026, pulling in more than $600,000 to top the incumbent by over $100,000 – the strongest first-quarter fundraising of any Republican challenger Cuellar has faced in his career, per the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
In Texas’ 34th District, Republican challenger Eric Flores – a former federal prosecutor who handled cartel-linked and human-smuggling cases – raised $1.4 million for the cycle, including $487,500 in candidate loans, compared to incumbent Rep. Vicente Gonzalez‘s $640,300 in Q1, according to FEC filings. Flores holds endorsements from President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, and Gov. Greg Abbott.
Fundraising Battle: Cash Advantages in Suburban and Border Districts
In Texas’ 15th District, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz entered 2026 with over $2 million in cash on hand after Trump carried her district by 17 points. Her Democratic challenger, Bobby Pulido, raised $1.6 million for the cycle but spent $1.2 million of it – a 75% burn rate – leaving him with roughly $403,000 cash on hand, according to the FEC. Campaign finance reports also show that the majority of his itemized contributions came from outside Texas, and that he received nearly $1 million in outside spending from Blue Dog Action’s political arm in the week before the primary, per CBS.
In Texas’ 23rd District, Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout raised over $238,000 through March 31 (including a $10,751 personal loan) and entered the general election with over $145,000 cash on hand. Republican nominee Brandon Herrera reported $868,568 in total receipts through his most recent available filing. (Note: The Republican runoff was canceled after incumbent Tony Gonzales withdrew.)
In Texas’ 35th District (an open seat), Democrats are in a contentious runoff between Johnny Garcia (who has raised ~$159k–$247k with low cash on hand) and Maureen Galindo (minimal funds and negative cash on hand). Galindo has faced intense backlash and lost endorsements after controversial Instagram posts widely condemned as antisemitic, as previously reported on by The Dallas Express. On the Republican side, state Rep. John Lujan (raised ~$645k) faces Trump-endorsed Carlos De La Cruz in the May 26 runoff.
Notably, in Texas’ 24th District, Rep. Beth Van Duyne won her last race by over 20 points, capturing more than 60% of the vote.
The Hispanic Vote: Democratic Polling Edge Meets Long-Term Republican Shift
Nationally, Democrats could be entering the cycle with a ballot advantage. Emerson College’s April poll put them up 10 points, with Hispanic voters breaking Democratic by 35 points, 61% to 26%. That’s a big reversal from 2024, when Democrats held just a 9-point edge with Hispanic voters. Polling averages across multiple firms put the overall Democratic advantage closer to 5 to 6 points.
Yet, a separate Economist/YouGov poll found Hispanic voters splitting almost evenly – just a 2-point edge for Democrats.
What’s clear is that Hispanic voters have been steadily shifting toward Republicans over the last few election cycles. Democrats held a massive 40-point lead among Hispanic voters nationally in 2018, per The Washington Post. That edge has since dropped to about 27 points in 2020, 21 points in 2022, and down to just 9 points in 2024, per The Center Square.
Republicans are now pushing Hispanic candidates in several competitive Texas districts this cycle — including Eric Flores, Tano Tijerina, John Lujan, and Carlos De La Cruz in TX-35.
Looking Ahead
The outcome of these Texas races may hinge on which environment wins out, the district-level fundamentals that have helped Republicans across Texas for years, or the national political climate that has Democrats feeling bullish heading into November.
