A new analysis from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) says the nation’s immigrant population, both legal and illegal, has fallen sharply in 2025, marking what researchers describe as an “unprecedented” reversal following four years of record growth.
Drawing on the federal government’s Current Population Survey (CPS), the Washington-based think tank’s analysis found that the total foreign-born population dropped by 2.2 million people from January to August 2025, including a preliminary estimated 1.6 million decline among illegal aliens.
“We have never seen a decline in the foreign-born like this before,” said Steven Camarota, CIS Director of Research and lead author of the report, in a press release. “Based on the best evidence available, it appears the decline is real and represents a dramatic reversal of very rapid growth seen over the prior four years.”
CIS researchers say the falloff cannot be explained by survey bias or nonresponse. They point out that the drop shows up in multiple months of CPS data, there was no change in response rates, and participants continued to answer immigration-related questions at normal levels.
The full analysis report suggested that the evidence points to a real demographic shift. It also appeared to confirm an earlier CIS analysis report that indicated the change “is likely due to increased out-migration in response to stepped-up enforcement,” rather than undercounting by government surveyors.
Among the key findings:
- Multiple months of CPS data show a steady decrease in the foreign-born population after January.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports no change in survey participation that would explain the decline.
- Job turnover data shows an increase in people leaving jobs with high immigrant concentrations, such as construction and hospitality.
- Anecdotal reports nationwide describe immigrants voluntarily leaving the U.S. or preparing to do so.
The findings come amid public debate over whether the CPS, a monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics, can reliably capture changes in immigrant populations. The survey has historically tracked immigration trends accurately, including the sharp increases during the 2021–2024 border surge, CIS’s latest analysis indicates.
Critics, including economists like Jeb Kolko of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, have questioned the plausibility of such a rapid drop, arguing that if millions had left the labor force, overall employment data would show a corresponding collapse. He contended that if the decline was really occurring, “nonfarm payroll employment would need to be revised downward by millions,” in a report from the Institute.
CIS countered in the new analysis that much of the decline likely involves off-the-books workers who do not appear in employer surveys.
The group’s August report first highlighted the 2.2 million drop. The new October update affirms that the trend has continued through the summer, suggesting what the authors call a “real and sudden change in migration patterns.”
This analysis examines numerous high-profile actions by law enforcement aimed at reducing both legal and illegal immigration.
On October 3, 2025, a press release for the Department of Homeland Security claimed “victory” when the “Supreme Court of the United States granted an emergency request by the Trump administration to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for over 300,000 Venezuelan aliens in the United States.”
This came as Illegal crossings along the U.S.-Mexico border have fallen to their lowest annual level since 1970, according to DHS data reported by The Dallas Express.