Zohran Mamdani remains the favorite to become the next mayor of New York City.
Prediction markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket show the Democratic socialist holding a commanding lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.
As of midday Monday, Polymarket bettors placed Mamdani’s chances of winning at 85%, with Cuomo trailing at 14% and Sliwa at 1%.
Cuomo briefly saw his odds rise to around 16% when Mayor Eric Adams announced his withdrawal from the race on Sunday afternoon, but most of the bump has already faded, leaving Mamdani’s grip largely untouched.
On Kalshi, traders gave Mamdani an 84% chance of victory, with Cuomo at 16% and Sliwa at 2%.
By the roughly same margin that Kalshi favors Mamdani to win outright, the platform’s traders also expect Cuomo to place second in the race. The volume of bets placed on the New York City mayoral contest sits just above $28 million on Kalshi and exceeds $107 million on Polymarket.
Mamdani, 33, has centered his campaign on affordability measures, including free buses, city-owned grocery stores, and rent freezes for tenants in stabilized apartments. “New Yorkers will turn the page on the politics of big money and small ideas,” Mamdani said in a statement following Adams’ exit, as reported by Fox News.
In a video story posted to Instagram, Mamdani also addressed Cuomo directly, saying: “You wanted me as your opponent in the primary, too, and we beat you by 13 points. Looking forward to doing it again on November 4.”
Analysts and pollsters cautioned that Adams’ departure does little to alter the dynamics of the race. “It gives Cuomo a boost — but it’s not enough,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion, told the New York Post.
Others argued that Adams’ withdrawal could still shift the tone of the campaign. Black activist Rev. Al Sharpton reportedly said the move makes the contest “potentially competitive” but still leaves Mamdani with the advantage.
Meanwhile, Cuomo praised Adams’ decision as “sincere in putting the well-being of New York City ahead of personal ambition.” Sliwa’s campaign framed him as the only candidate capable of defeating Mamdani, though polls have shown him well behind both leading contenders.
Election Day is November 4.