Costco shoppers who stocked up on gold bars are seeing returns of up to 40% as gold prices surge to record highs amid global instability.
The warehouse giant’s venture into precious metals has proven lucrative for early buyers. Analysts say the trend highlights a broader shift as Americans turn to safe-haven assets like gold.
A one-ounce gold bar purchased from Costco for $2,679 in September 2024 now carries a value of about $3,549 — a gain of $870 or roughly 32.5% over 12 months. Depending on purchase timing, some buyers have seen appreciation of up to 42%.
Central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over U.S. debt and monetary policy have driven gold to historic levels as investors seek a hedge against instability.
“With two wars ongoing, trade tensions, U.S. debt concerns and fears over [Federal Reserve] independence, gold’s traditional ‘fear hedge’ role remains strong,” said Jon Ulin.
Costco’s gold bar program has gained major traction. Wells Fargo estimates monthly sales could hit $200 million. Bars initially sold for $2,495 in early 2024, while Canadian customers saw prices climb from $2,679.99 CAD in October 2023 to $4,689.99 CAD when in stock.
Industry experts view Costco’s gold sales as a psychological shift. “It shows that the psychology of the public has changed…now they’re carrying them because obviously they feel the public wants them,” said analyst Mike Maloney.
The surge in gold has outpaced major equity indices this year.
“The probability of an economic slowdown has greatly increased, and people naturally look for a safe haven asset,” explained Campbell Harvey, a Duke Business School professor.
Some analysts remain bullish. JPMorgan predicts gold could reach $4,250 an ounce by 2026, according to Money Digest.
Others warn of risks. Citigroup analysts told the Financial Post gold could fall as much as 25% within a year due to weaker demand and possible U.S. rate cuts.
Prospective sellers should note gold bars typically sell for 5–10% below spot. Costco’s bars carry no special premium and often sell out online despite steep price increases.