California Governor Gavin Newsom is increasingly viewed as the face of the Democratic Party for the 2028 presidential election, although he trails behind Vice President JD Vance in hypothetical matchups.
A new Emerson College Polling survey found that Newsom and Vance are tied at 44%, with 12% of voters undecided. The result marks an improvement for Newsom, who trailed Vance by three points in July. The poll also showed Newsom leading the Democratic primary field at 25%, a 13-point increase since June.
The findings contrast with a May Co/efficient survey, which showed that just 2% of respondents considered Newsom the face of the Democratic Party. At the time, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and “no one” tied at 26% each, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 12% and Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett at 8%.
While polling questions about who someone would like to see as the Democratic nominee in 2028 and who they think is the leader of the Democratic Party are arguably distinct questions in the minds of poll takers.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated in a press release that Newsom’s support “surged across key demographic groups, highlighted by a 12-point increase among voters under 30 … an 18-point increase among voters over 70 … and a 14-point increase among both Black … and white … voters.”
Kimball added that younger voters in particular had shifted toward Newsom: “After splitting this group in June (39% to 38%), he now holds a clear lead, 45% to 28%.”
The Emerson poll also found that former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg held 16% in the Democratic field, Vice President Kamala Harris at 11%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 5%, and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 4% each.
On the Republican side, Vance drew 52% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 9% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 7%.
Newsom’s rise comes after a summer in which he has positioned himself as a direct foil to President Donald Trump.
The California governor has sparred with Trump on social media, with his office’s official account mocking the President’s style and branding Vance as “Just Dance Vance.” He has also promoted his state’s redistricting push as a counter to Republican efforts in Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott has backed new GOP-friendly maps.
William Kedjanyi, a political betting analyst with Star Sports, told Newsweek in August: “Gavin Newsom has always been a well-recognized figure in American politics, but recently he’s asserted himself as a leader of the resistance against President Donald Trump, especially with regards to more combative communications and taking Trump head on and getting under his skin.”
Websites such as Kalshi allow users to trade on the outcome of future events, also showing Vance and Newsom as the frontrunners, with the Vice President clearly in the lead.
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