The FBI recently revised its 2022 crime statistics, which now indicate an increase in violent crime, contradicting earlier reports of a decline.
Former President Donald Trump, often challenged on the campaign trail for his claims about rising crime, faced criticism rooted in the original FBI data suggesting crime was falling.
However, the updated numbers tell a different story, showing that violent offenses actually grew last year, per the New York Post.
RealClearInvestigations first reported the revision, highlighting that violent crimes — including murders, assaults, and rapes — increased from 1,197,930 incidents in 2021 to 1,256,671 in 2022, marking a 4.9% jump. This change came despite earlier FBI estimates released in 2023, which stated violent crime had dropped by 1.7% from 2021 to 2022.
The discrepancy underscores the complexities behind collecting and analyzing crime data.
Initially, the FBI claimed the violent crime rate had decreased by 2.1% in relation to the population. However, the newly revised data suggests an increase of about 4.5% during the same period. Notably, the FBI did not mention these changes in its annual crime report released in September 2023, where it announced a 3% decline in crime for the following year.
The Crime Prevention Research Center flagged the subtle data correction through a detailed spreadsheet comparison.
Carl Moody, an economics professor specializing in crime data at the College of William & Mary, observed that such significant revisions are unprecedented. According to Moody, the lack of transparency surrounding these adjustments erodes trust in the FBI’s crime reports.
Moody pointed out that revisions in crime data between 2004 and 2020 were minimal, typically under 1%. However, the changes made to the 2021 and 2022 statistics — including an overcount of 55,786 violent incidents in 2021 and an undercount of 24,243 in 2022 — raise significant concerns about the reliability of the FBI’s numbers.
The transition to the National Incident-Based Reporting System in 2021 may have contributed to these inconsistencies. The new system offers more detailed crime tracking but has been challenging for many municipalities, leading to a drop in reporting rates.
This shift from the older Summary Reporting System has further complicated the collection of accurate crime data.
These revisions have renewed debate over the credibility of the FBI’s statistics, especially given that fact-checkers often cite them to challenge political narratives. Trump, for instance, was confronted with FBI data during a presidential debate, reinforcing the importance of accurate reporting in shaping public discourse. The FBI has yet to respond to inquiries about the reasoning behind these changes.