A leaked internal poll revealed a bleak outlook for Republican senatorial candidates in the upcoming November general election, with a small but not insignificant glimmer of hope.
Out of the swing states and states that are considered competitive, only Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas and Senate Candidate Tim Sheehy of Montana are in the lead. Cruz’s lead is razor-thin, just one point over Democrat challenger and Congressman Colin Allred, according to an internal polling memo from the Super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, obtained by Politico.
Cruz has historically been an underperformer in Senate races. In 2018, the two-term legislator was almost defeated by El Paso Democrat Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Cruz narrowly edged his opponent by roughly two points.
Senior U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas, defeated Democrat challenger MJ Hegar by around 10 points in the 2020 election cycle.
Cruz’s numbers are explained in a bullet point: “Colin Allred has crept up on Ted Cruz by heavily outspending him for weeks.”
Polling indicates that Sheehy’s lead is four points over incumbent Montana Democrat Jon Tester. Since August, Sheehy has consistently kept some distance, ranging between 2 and 4 points, from Tester.
This data comes as Trump tops Harris 50/45 in Texas and 57/40 in Montana.
Polls frequently tighten just before an election as citizens become more politically engaged. However, the lackluster performance of people like businessman Bernie Moreno in Ohio and former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan may come as a surprise.
For decades, Ohio was considered a swing state. However, in 2016, the state drifted right, and Trump won it decisively by 8 points in 2020. Given this and the fact that Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, holds the other Senate seat, many assumed Moreno would fare better than this poll indicates.
The October polling shows Moreno at 39 to Democrat Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown’s 45. Brown was first elected to his senate seat in 2006.
The same poll currently has Trump at 47 and Harris at 43.
Despite Maryland’s reputation as a blue state, Hogan was elected to two terms as governor before being term-limited. In his last election, he won by roughly 12 points.
The leaked poll reflected the public’s perception of the former governor as a shoo-in for the seat currently held by retiring Ben Cardin. Hogan led 46 to 41 in August against the relatively unknown County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.
Hogan’s fortunes have since reversed. He is now polling at 41 to her 48. Trump trails Harris in this state with 32 to her 61.
The poll shows similar happenings across the country.
To no one’s surprise, Trump and Harris are tied 47/47 in Arizona. Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Democrat Congressman Ruben Gallego 42 to 47.
In Michigan, Trump trails Harris by 3 points while former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers is behind Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin 38 to 46.
Trump and Harris are tied in Nevada, while Republican veteran Sam Brown follows Democrat state Sen. Jacky Rosen 36 to 43.
Trump and Harris are at 48 and 49, respectively, in Pennsylvania, while businessman and former Trump Treasury official Dave McCormick is 46 to 48 behind incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey.
A note in the document appears below this poll: “No GOP Senate candidate this year lives up to Winston Churchill’s famous injunction “Deserve Victory” more than Dave McCormick. McCormick’s campaign has painstakingly built a right-side-up image while SLF and others have degraded Casey’s job approval by a net -15 points. McCormick still needs to close the gap with Trump on the ballot, and Trump needs to win.”
Trump leads Harris by one point in Wisconsin 46 to 45, while Republican philanthropist Eric Hovde and Democrat Tammy Baldwin have the reverse figures.
Based on this information, if the election were held today and the undecided voters either did not vote or broke in such a way as to not disturb the current balance of the polls, Republicans would pick up one new senate seat and thus capture the Senate with 51 Republicans to 47 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats.