With just over two months remaining until the 2024 presidential election, prognosticators are starting to predict who will be the next president of the United States.
Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1984, including former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016, has shared his final verdict on the race: Kamala Harris will win. Lichtman believes Trump will come up short against the vice president because “the Democrats finally got smart and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris.”
Lichtman has gone nine for 10 in his predictions since 1984. Interestingly, the only election he missed on was predicting that Trump would beat Joe Biden. Some might argue that Lichtman is really 10 for 10.
However, bookmakers, who stand to gain or lose a pretty penny, generally predict that Trump will win the election. Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, gives Trump a 53% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 46%. Another site, Smarkets, has Trump at 50.5% versus Harris’ 47.5%. Election Betting Odds, which is based on four different betting markets, says that Trump has a 49.7% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 48.1%.
Fox News sat down with prominent election analyst Nate Silver to hear why he predicts Trump will win the Electoral College. Here’s the start of the story:
Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.
Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, “The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote.
Silver’s nuanced election forecast model shows Trump’s chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris’ odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.
He also noted that Harris seemingly didn’t benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.
“There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” Silver wrote.
Last week, Silver warned that Harris was poised to be a “slight underdog” in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes are expected to play a significant part in determining the outcome of the presidential election.
On Wednesday, the polling guru delivered more bad news for the Harris campaign, writing on X that Michigan could present an “issue” for Harris after weeks of lackluster numbers in the state.