EXCLUSIVE — One of the most accurate presidential pollsters in the nation said there has been a clear shift from voters towards the Democratic Party in recent weeks but emphasized the campaign “will be a tight race no matter what.”
Raghavan Mayur leads the TIPP presidential poll, which has predicted elections for over a decade. TIPP was crowned the most accurate poll in 2020, and its 2016 poll was only one percentage point off the final result.
Mayur said President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid provided a life preserver to a dying Democratic ticket.
“Kamala Harris is night and day compared to Biden,” Mayur told The Dallas Express. “Some of the people on the fringes who departed with Biden may be coming back to the fold with Kamala. But it will be a tight race no matter what.”
TIPP’s latest poll, which was released Monday, showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by two percentage points in a race with third-party candidates and one percentage point in a head-to-head race.
Mayur described this quick shift to Harris as a “relief rally” following Biden’s campaign finale. He said to expect an additional bump for the vice president following the Democratic convention. However, he said some voters will likely grow sour on Harris as she increases her campaign presence.
“The race will get tighter when the honeymoon is over,” Mayur told DX.
“There’s a hide-and-seek game being played. The Democrats don’t want to expose Kamala as much. They want to keep her a best-kept secret and follow the success of Biden’s 2020 basement campaign,” he added.
The strength for Trump, Mayur noted, is the electoral college.
Biden won the popular vote by 4% in 2020 but nearly lost the election due to historically narrow margins in battleground states. Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by 2%.
“Trump is much stronger this time than the last time because people have experienced firsthand what the economy was like under Biden compared to the golden days of Trump,” Mayur said.
The pollster stressed that Trump needs to “stay on message” and effectively tie Harris to Biden, especially her role in border security.
“There are three important issues for Trump to win: the economy, immigration, and crime,” he told DX. “Trump has to talk about those three. He doesn’t have to talk about anything else.”
“Biden has been a total flop when it comes to immigration,” Mayur continued. “No amount of sugarcoating can dispute that. The border czar talk is nonsense. Everyone can see the impact of illegal immigration.”
However, the Republican Party’s unpopularity when it comes to abortion provides an opportunity for Harris to woo moderate and female voters, Mayur added.
“The one strength she has, which I don’t know how Republicans will counter, is related to abortion,” Mayur told DX. “Since January, abortion has emerged as one of the most important issues. And she can do the talk.”