(Texas Scorecard) – During a recent interview with CBS, Gov. Greg Abbott predicted the GOP will gain three state house seats in the November general election.
When asked to provide more detail, Abbott responded, “Well, I’ll give you an easy one, and that is Tracy King’s district. Democrat. On the border. The former Uvalde mayor is running for his seat, and that’s a seat where both I and Donald Trump have won in the past. It’s a Republican seat. We know we’re going to pick up that one.”
Abbott continued, “Republicans are going to pick up three. They’re going to pick up Plesa. They’re going to pick up one in the Corpus area and pick up McLaughlin, which is the Republican nominee for Tracy King.”
FEELING CONFIDENT ABOUT NOVEMBER: @GregAbbott_TX tells @cbs11jack Republicans will flip three seats now held by Democrats in the Texas House. "The reality is Republicans are going to pick up several Democratic House seats…" Full episode here: https://t.co/rQNgGSmTe9 pic.twitter.com/chX16eaduz
— CBS News Texas (@CBSNewsTexas) August 4, 2024
To summarize, Abbott predicts the GOP will pick up House Districts 34 (Abel Herrero-Corpus Christi), 70 (Mihaela Plesa-Plano), and 80 (Tracy King-Uvalde). A closer examination suggests some of Abbott’s predictions are more likely than others.
In House District 80, Abbott correctly points out that, in 2022, he won the district by almost six points. Incumbent Democrat State Rep. Tracy King, meanwhile, ran unopposed. As King declined to run for re-election, Republicans are widely expected to pick up this open seat.
While Uvalde is historically Democrat territory, it has a history of bucking the national and state parties. Most notably, former Vice President John Nance (“Cactus Jack”) Garner, who famously turned against the New Deal once its radicalism became apparent, hailed from the area. Former Gov. Dolph Briscoe, who rode into office on a reformist wave following the Sharpstown banking scandal, similarly grew up in the region.
In House District 70, in 2022, Abbott lost the district by nearly seven points. Nevertheless, Democrat State Rep. Mihaela Plesa ultimately prevailed by less than 1000 votes. In addition, Republican judicial candidates outperformed Abbott in this district.
In House District 34, in 2022, Abbott lost the district by just under five points. In addition, Democrat State Rep. Abel Herrero outran his statewide ticket, winning the district by over fifteen points.
At the same time, Democrats are expected to seriously contest current Republican House Districts 37 (Janie Lopez-Brownsville) and 118 (John Lujan-San Antonio). In 2022, Abbott won District 37 and lost District 118 by less than 1000 votes.
Some have also suggested Democrats could have an outside shot at additional seats in the San Antonio and Dallas area, but those are considered a longshot.
The results of the 2022 Governor’s race suggest a one-for-one trade of the King/Uvalde seat for the Lujan/San Antonio seat seems the most likely outcome. Additional seats could come into play depending on the national and statewide political environment closer to election day. Republicans currently hold a 22-seat majority, 86 to 64, in the 150-member chamber.
The 2024 general election will take place on Tuesday, November 5. Early voting runs from Monday, October 21 to Friday, November 1.
