Early voting in the Texas primary shows a decline of about 200,000 votes from the last presidential election, with most of the losses coming from border counties.
Of the 17.9 million registered voters in Texas, just 1.8 million cast ballots in the early voting period, which ended on March 1. Voters will have a final chance to cast a ballot on Super Tuesday, March 5. During the last presidential primary in 2020, 2 million votes were counted in the early voting period.
Based on numbers provided by the Texas Secretary of State, the drop in counted votes occurred entirely in Democrat-led counties along the southern border. Republican votes declined by just 1.5% in solid red counties. A decline of 3.6% was seen in the 28 counties along the border. Those counties recorded a voter turnout of just 9.1% of registered voters.
The Texas Tribune reported that low voter turnout in those regions is likely attributed to a lack of competitive races and low enthusiasm for candidates. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, told the Tribune that the presidential race expected to be between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden is not exciting.
“I think there is less enthusiasm for the big matchup in 2024,” Rottinghaus said. “We’ve been there, done that, and I think a lot of voters are kind of sitting on the sidelines until things change.”
Voting in right-leaning counties was strong in part due to the politically charged races there, Rottinghaus said. Attorney General Ken Paxton has endorsed several candidates running against incumbent members of the state legislature who voted for his impeachment last September. The Texas House of Representatives voted in favor of impeachment, but Paxton was saved after the Senate voted for acquittal, according to reporting by The Dallas Express.
Gov. Greg Abbott has also generated headlines about several races by endorsing candidates who favor school choice legislation. Polling has shown that endorsements from Abbott carry significant weight with voters, and his support for pro-school choice candidates could significantly impact several key races, as reported by The Dallas Express.
Voter turnout was particularly low among voters under the age of 30, according to the data from the Secretary of State. Of the 1.8 million votes in the early voting period, just 75,000 were by voters under 30. The Texas Tribune reported that the number of young voters was approximately the same as voters over the age of 85, despite the average age of Texas residents being 35.5 years old. While voters under the age of 30 make up about 20% of the registered voters in Texas, only about 4% participated in early voting this year.
Election numbers from 2020 show that more than half of the votes cast in the election came on election day. The same could hold for 2024. The Tribune pointed out that changes to the mail-in voting procedure in 2021 may have confused some voters and led to a decline in the number of votes cast.
