Marriage rates in the U.S. have bounced back from pre-pandemic lows, but the number of couples who plan to say their “I Do’s” could begin to drop in 2023.

Already on the decline from 2017 to 2019, marriages dropped to a record low of 1.68 million in 2020, according to NCHS data. But by 2021, the number had rebounded again to about 1.99 million, approaching 2019’s 2.02 million.

Last year’s marriage data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) has yet to be released, but market research company Wedding Report forecast in 2021 that marriage rates could begin to moderate and level off in 2023 after the post-COVID-lockdown surge of marriages in 2021 and 2022.

The number of future weddings in the U.S. annually as forecast by Wedding Report in 2021 were as follows:

  • 2022 – 2.47 million weddings with an average spend of $24.3k.
  • 2023 – 2.24 million weddings with an average spend of $24.9k.

This year’s wedding count “should be closer to normal,” according to Wedding Report CEO Shane McMurray, as reported by USA Today. However, guest lists may decrease in 2023 based on factors like economic uncertainty, high inflation, and what McMurray referred to as “wedding burnout” from the previous year.

To determine each state’s annual marriage rate, the NCHS calculates the number of new marriage certificates completed in each state per 1,000 people.

The states that regularly achieve the highest completion rate of marriage certificates include Nevada for its drive-thru weddings and Hawaii for its tropical island feel and scenic sunsets, according to USA Today.

In 2021, NCHS listed Nevada as the top state for wedding activity and marriage certificates completed, with 26.2 marriages per 1,000 people. NCHS listed Hawaii second with a marriage rate of 12.8, followed in third place by Montana with 11.0 unions per 1,000 people. North Dakota was the only state in 2021 where marriage rates decreased, according to NCHS data.

As for the marriage rate in the Lone Star State, NCHS data provided to USA Today show that marriages in Texas rose from 5.3 in 2020 to 5.8 in 2021. During this time, the number of weddings in Texas increased from 156,845 to 170,486, a year-over-year increase of 8.69%.