New polling data shows varying results in the presidential race, ranging from Vice President Kamala Harris leading by six percentage points to former President Donald Trump leading by three percentage points.
Harris leads Trump in all but one poll conducted after last week’s presidential debate. The wave of new surveys placed her lead at nearly two percentage points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling data.
Six post-debate polls found Harris leading the national vote: New York Post by three percentage points, ABC News/Ipsos by four percentage points, Yahoo News by four percentage points, Data for Progress by four percentage points, TIPP by four percentage points, and Morning Consult by six percentage points.
The outlier, Atlas Intel, found Trump leading by three percentage points.
President Joe Biden won the popular vote by four percentage points over Trump, which led to a narrow victory in the electoral college in the 2020 election. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election despite losing the popular vote by two percentage points.
The RealClearPolitics aggregate overestimated Biden’s support by nearly three percentage points in 2020.
Nate Silver, an expert in election polls who founded the data company FiveThirtyEight, updated his election model Tuesday, which showed Harris leading by three percentage points. The model weighs selected polls based on their sample size and survey methods.
Atlas Intel, the outlier poll that favored Trump, is rated “A” in Silver’s model. The New York Times/Sienna poll, which ranks second in Silver’s survey and is rated “A+,” found Trump leading by one percentage point in its most recent poll this month.
ABC News/Ipsos, which found Harris leading by four percentage points, is rated “A+” in Silver’s model, while Morning Consultant, which found the vice president up six points, is rated “B-.”
Swing state polls show an especially tight race in the Electoral College. The RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls shows Trump leading by 1.3 percentage points in Arizona, 0.4 in North Carolina, and 0.2 in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Harris leads by 1.2 percentage points in Nevada, 1.2 in Wisconsin, and 0.7 in Michigan.
Betting markets show Harris as a slight favorite over Trump in the Electoral College, according to electionbettingodds.com.
The newly released polls were conducted before the second assassination attempt against Trump, which occurred Sunday at the former president’s golf club in Palm Beach, Florida.